Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy Is a Sign of Success by Dietrich Vollrath (E

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Vollrath challenges our long-held assumption that growth is the best indicator of an economy's health.Most economists would agree that a thriving economy is synonymous with GDP growth. The more we produce and consume, the higher our living standard and the more resources available to the public. This means that our current era, in which growth has slowed substantially from its postwar highs, has raised alarm bells. But should it? Is growth actually the best way to measure economic success—and does our slowdown indicate economic problems?The counterintuitive answer Dietrich Vollrath offers is: No. Looking at the same facts as other economists, he offers a radically different interpretation. Rather than a sign of economic failure, he argues, our current slowdown is, in fact, a sign of our widespread economic success. Our powerful economy has already supplied so much of the necessary stuff of modern life, brought us so much comfort, security, and luxury, that we have turned to new forms of production and consumption that increase our well-being but do not contribute to growth in GDP.In Fully Grown, Vollrath offers a powerful case to support that argument. He explores a number of important trends in the US economy: including a decrease in the number of workers relative to the population, a shift from a goods-driven economy to a services-driven one, and a decline in geographic mobility. In each case, he shows how their economic effects could be read as a sign of success, even though they each act as a brake of GDP growth.  He also reveals what growth measurement can and cannot tell us—which factors are rightly correlated with economic success, which tell us nothing about significant changes in the economy, and which fall into a conspicuously gray area.Sure to be controversial, Fully Grown will reset the terms of economic debate and help us think anew about what a successful economy looks like.

FORMATHardcover LANGUAGEEnglish CONDITIONBrand New Author Biography

Dietrich Vollrath is professor of economics at the University of Houston. He is coauthor of Introduction to Economic Growth, now in its third edition, and writes the Growth Economics Blog.

Table of Contents

Preface 1 Victims of Our Own Success 2 What Is the Growth Slowdown? 3 The Inputs to Economic Growth 4 What Accounts for the Growth Slowdown? 5 The Effect of an Aging Population 6 The Difference between Productivity and Technology 7 The Reallocation from Goods to Services 8 Baumol's Cost Disease 9 Market Power and Productivity 10 Market Power and the Decline in Investment 11 The Necessity of Market Power 12 Reallocations across Firms and Jobs 13 The Drop in Geographic Mobility 14 Did the Government Cause the Slowdown? 15 Did Inequality Cause the Slowdown? 16 Did China Cause the Slowdown? 17 The Future of Growth Appendix: Data and Methods References Index

Review

"For the past decade, Robert Gordon has written about the rise and fall of American growth, praising the first in our past that was and lamenting the second in our present that is. Now comes Vollrath with a lively, accurate, and essential corrective to Gordon's pessimism: growth is slow today, he demonstrates, not because our economy is failing but because our economy has succeeded."--Brad DeLong, University of California, Berkeley "Vollrath offers a provocative new explanation of the slowdown in economic growth experienced by the US economy during the past two decades: we are a victim of our own success. Rising leisure, declining fertility, and the shift out of manufacturing into services explain the bulk of the slowdown in aggregate income growth. Each is a feature of a mature, developed economy, and in that sense, the slowdown may be a symbol of success rather than a sign of failure. Brilliantly supported by the latest research and engagingly presented, Fully Grown provides a startling, novel assessment of economic growth in the 21st century."--Chad Jones, Stanford University

Review Quote

"Why has the growth slowed in the high-income countries, notably the US? Is it a sign of failure or of success? Vollrath argues that it is the latter. Thus, the main reasons for the slowdown in the early 21st century are demographic - smaller family sizes and ageing - and the shift from goods to services. The failure to accelerate the overall rate of growth of productivity in the services is striking. Given that reality, Vollrath is right."

Details ISBN022666600X Author Dietrich Vollrath Pages 296 Year 2020 ISBN-10 022666600X ISBN-13 9780226666006 Format Hardcover Publication Date 2020-01-06 Imprint University of Chicago Press Subtitle Why a Stagnant Economy Is a Sign of Success Country of Publication United States DEWEY 330.973 Short Title Fully Grown Language English UK Release Date 2020-01-06 NZ Release Date 2020-01-06 US Release Date 2020-01-06 Publisher The University of Chicago Press Audience General AU Release Date 2020-01-12 We've got this

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